Scenarios Configuration

Scenarios Configuration#

This is the scenario outline used in the analysis The Role of Energy Storage in Germany. For each scenario involving multi-day storages, there is always a corresponding counterfactual scenario that excludes multi-day storages.

Note

The PyPSA-Eur configuration files follow a pyramid-like structure, where the parameters in the highest configuration file add to and override those in the configuration file below it. The order is as follows:

scenarios.form.yaml (this section)
config.form.yaml
config.default.yaml
config.kpi.yaml

Thus, for example changes specified in scenario.form.yaml will add to and override configurations in config.form.yaml and so on.

The scenario tree are shown below:

`Baseline`#

The Baseline scenario is based on the climate year 2013, with the cost of iron-air set at 23,500 EUR/MWh (2024).

There are two baseline scenarios:

baseline-mds: The cost of iron-air is set at 23,500 EUR/MWh (2024).
baseline-nomds: Multi-day storages are excluded.

baseline-mds:
  sector:
    stores: ["H2"]
    storage_units: ["li-ion battery", "vanadium", "lair", "pair", "iron-air battery"]

baseline-nomds:
  sector:
    stores: []
    storage_units: ["li-ion battery", "vanadium", "lair", "pair"]

`Mid-Capex`#

The Mid-Capex scenario sets the cost of iron-air at 20,000 EUR/MWh (2024), slightly lower than the Baseline scenario.

mid-capex-mds:
  sector:
    stores: ["H2"]
    storage_units: ["li-ion battery", "vanadium", "lair", "pair", "iron-air battery"]
  costs:
    investment:
      iron-air battery: 18477  # in EUR/MWh (2020) from 20,000 EUR/MWh (2024)

`Low-Capex`#

The Low-Capex scenario sets the cost of iron-air at 15,250 EUR/MWh (2024), representing the lowest cost for iron-air when compared to the Baseline scenario.

low-capex-mds:
  sector:
    stores: ["H2"]
    storage_units: ["li-ion battery", "vanadium", "lair", "pair", "iron-air battery"]
  costs:
    investment:
      iron-air battery: 14089  # in EUR/MWh (2020) from 15,250 EUR/MWh (2024)

`Climate Year 2010`#

This scenario is based on the climate year 2010, which is characterised by the lowest annual wind resources and the second highest annual heating demand from 1960 - 2021 (Gøtske et al., 2024)

There are four available scenarios for this climate year:

cy2010-mds: The cost of iron-air is set at 23,500 EUR/MWh (2024).
cy2010-nomds: Multi-day storages are excluded.
cy2010-mid-capex-mds: The cost of iron-air is set at 20,000 EUR/MWh (2024).
cy2010-low-capex-mds: The cost of iron-air is set at 15,250 EUR/MWh (2024).

cy2010-mds:
  sector:
    stores: ["H2"]
    storage_units: ["li-ion battery", "vanadium", "lair", "pair", "iron-air battery"]
  snapshots:
    start: "2010-01-01"
    end: "2011-01-01"
  atlite:
    default_cutout: europe-2010-sarah3-era5
    cutouts:
      europe-2010-sarah3-era5:
        module: [sarah, era5] # in priority order
        x: [-12., 42.]
        y: [33., 72.]
        dx: 0.3
        dy: 0.3
        time: ['2010', '2010']
  renewable:
    onwind:
      cutout: europe-2010-sarah3-era5
    offwind-ac:
      cutout: europe-2010-sarah3-era5
    offwind-dc:
      cutout: europe-2010-sarah3-era5
    offwind-float:
      cutout: europe-2010-sarah3-era5
    solar:
      cutout: europe-2010-sarah3-era5
    solar-hsat:
      cutout: europe-2010-sarah3-era5
    hydro:
      cutout: europe-2010-sarah3-era5

cy2010-nomds:
  sector:
    stores: []
    storage_units: ["li-ion battery", "vanadium", "lair", "pair"]
  snapshots:
    start: "2010-01-01"
    end: "2011-01-01"
  atlite:
    default_cutout: europe-2010-sarah3-era5
    cutouts:
      europe-2010-sarah3-era5:
        module: [sarah, era5] # in priority order
        x: [-12., 42.]
        y: [33., 72.]
        dx: 0.3
        dy: 0.3
        time: ['2010', '2010']
  renewable:
    onwind:
      cutout: europe-2010-sarah3-era5
    offwind-ac:
      cutout: europe-2010-sarah3-era5
    offwind-dc:
      cutout: europe-2010-sarah3-era5
    offwind-float:
      cutout: europe-2010-sarah3-era5
    solar:
      cutout: europe-2010-sarah3-era5
    solar-hsat:
      cutout: europe-2010-sarah3-era5
    hydro:
      cutout: europe-2010-sarah3-era5

`Climate Year 2012`#

This scenario is based on the climate year 2012, which is the most stressful climate year in terms of 2-week Dunkelflaute situation at European aggregated level (2024 TYNDP Scenarios Methodology Report, page 30)

There are four available scenarios for this climate year:

cy2012-mds: The cost of iron-air is set at 23,500 EUR/MWh (2024).
cy2012-nomds: Multi-day storages are excluded.
cy2012-mid-capex-mds: The cost of iron-air is set at 20,000 EUR/MWh (2024).
cy2012-low-capex-mds: The cost of iron-air is set at 15,250 EUR/MWh (2024).

cy2012-mds:
  sector:
    stores: ["H2"]
    storage_units: ["li-ion battery", "vanadium", "lair", "pair", "iron-air battery"]
  snapshots:
    start: "2012-01-01"
    end: "2013-01-01"
  atlite:
    default_cutout: europe-2012-sarah3-era5
    cutouts:
      europe-2012-sarah3-era5:
        module: [sarah, era5] # in priority order
        x: [-12., 42.]
        y: [33., 72.]
        dx: 0.3
        dy: 0.3
        time: ['2012', '2012']
  renewable:
    onwind:
      cutout: europe-2012-sarah3-era5
    offwind-ac:
      cutout: europe-2012-sarah3-era5
    offwind-dc:
      cutout: europe-2012-sarah3-era5
    offwind-float:
      cutout: europe-2012-sarah3-era5
    solar:
      cutout: europe-2012-sarah3-era5
    solar-hsat:
      cutout: europe-2012-sarah3-era5
    hydro:
      cutout: europe-2012-sarah3-era5

cy2012-nomds:
  sector:
    stores: []
    storage_units: ["li-ion battery", "vanadium", "lair", "pair"]
  snapshots:
    start: "2012-01-01"
    end: "2013-01-01"
  atlite:
    default_cutout: europe-2012-sarah3-era5
    cutouts:
      europe-2012-sarah3-era5:
        module: [sarah, era5] # in priority order
        x: [-12., 42.]
        y: [33., 72.]
        dx: 0.3
        dy: 0.3
        time: ['2012', '2012']
  renewable:
    onwind:
      cutout: europe-2012-sarah3-era5
    offwind-ac:
      cutout: europe-2012-sarah3-era5
    offwind-dc:
      cutout: europe-2012-sarah3-era5
    offwind-float:
      cutout: europe-2012-sarah3-era5
    solar:
      cutout: europe-2012-sarah3-era5
    solar-hsat:
      cutout: europe-2012-sarah3-era5
    hydro:
      cutout: europe-2012-sarah3-era5

`Climate Year 1996`#

This scenario is based on the climate year 1996, which is characterised by low yield of PV and wind, as well as a pronounced “dark doldrums” for about 10 days in January (TransnetBW Energy System 2050 Report, page 19)

There are two available scenarios for this climate year:

cy1996-mds: The cost of iron-air is set at 23,500 EUR/MWh (2024).
cy1996-nomds: Multi-day storages are excluded.

cy1996-mds:
  sector:
    stores: ["H2"]
    storage_units: ["li-ion battery", "vanadium", "lair", "pair", "iron-air battery"]
  snapshots:
    start: "1996-01-01"
    end: "1997-01-01"
  atlite:
    default_cutout: europe-1996-sarah3-era5
    cutouts:
      europe-1996-sarah3-era5:
        module: [sarah, era5] # in priority order
        x: [-12., 42.]
        y: [33., 72.]
        dx: 0.3
        dy: 0.3
        time: ['1996', '1996']
  renewable:
    onwind:
      cutout: europe-1996-sarah3-era5
    offwind-ac:
      cutout: europe-1996-sarah3-era5
    offwind-dc:
      cutout: europe-1996-sarah3-era5
    offwind-float:
      cutout: europe-1996-sarah3-era5
    solar:
      cutout: europe-1996-sarah3-era5
    solar-hsat:
      cutout: europe-1996-sarah3-era5
    hydro:
      cutout: europe-1996-sarah3-era5

cy1996-nomds:
  sector:
    stores: []
    storage_units: ["li-ion battery", "vanadium", "lair", "pair"]
  snapshots:
    start: "1996-01-01"
    end: "1997-01-01"
  atlite:
    default_cutout: europe-1996-sarah3-era5
    cutouts:
      europe-1996-sarah3-era5:
        module: [sarah, era5] # in priority order
        x: [-12., 42.]
        y: [33., 72.]
        dx: 0.3
        dy: 0.3
        time: ['1996', '1996']
  renewable:
    onwind:
      cutout: europe-1996-sarah3-era5
    offwind-ac:
      cutout: europe-1996-sarah3-era5
    offwind-dc:
      cutout: europe-1996-sarah3-era5
    offwind-float:
      cutout: europe-1996-sarah3-era5
    solar:
      cutout: europe-1996-sarah3-era5
    solar-hsat:
      cutout: europe-1996-sarah3-era5
    hydro:
      cutout: europe-1996-sarah3-era5

`Germany Gas Power Plant Phase-Out`#

These scenarios assume that Germany, driven by policy decision, successfully phases out gas-fired power plants and gas CHPs in 2035.

There are three available scenarios:

nogasppde-nomds: Multi-day storages are excluded.
nogasppde-mid-capex-mds: The cost of iron-air is set at 20,000 EUR/MWh (2024).
nogasppde-low-capex-mds: The cost of iron-air is set at 15,250 EUR/MWh (2024).

nogasppde-mid-capex-mds:
  sector:
    stores: ["H2"]
    storage_units: ["li-ion battery", "vanadium", "lair", "pair", "iron-air battery"]
    chp_extendable_DE: false
  costs:
    investment:
      iron-air battery: 18477  # in EUR/MWh (2020) from 20,000 EUR/MWh (2024)
  electricity:
    powerplants_filter: DateOut >= 2024 and not Fueltype.isin(['Nuclear', 'Hard Coal', 'Lignite']) and not (Fueltype == 'Natural Gas' and Country == 'DE')
    custom_powerplants: DateIn <= 2024 and DateOut >= 2024 and not (Fueltype == 'Natural Gas' and Country == 'DE')

nogasppde-low-capex-mds:
  sector:
    stores: ["H2"]
    storage_units: ["li-ion battery", "vanadium", "lair", "pair", "iron-air battery"]
    chp_extendable_DE: false
  costs:
    investment:
      iron-air battery: 14089  # in EUR/MWh (2020) from 15,250 EUR/MWh (2024)
  electricity:
    powerplants_filter: DateOut >= 2024 and not Fueltype.isin(['Nuclear', 'Hard Coal', 'Lignite']) and not (Fueltype == 'Natural Gas' and Country == 'DE')
    custom_powerplants: DateIn <= 2024 and DateOut >= 2024 and not (Fueltype == 'Natural Gas' and Country == 'DE')

nogasppde-nomds:
  sector:
    stores: []
    storage_units: ["li-ion battery", "vanadium", "lair", "pair"]
    chp_extendable_DE: false
  electricity:
    powerplants_filter: DateOut >= 2024 and not Fueltype.isin(['Nuclear', 'Hard Coal', 'Lignite']) and not (Fueltype == 'Natural Gas' and Country == 'DE')
    custom_powerplants: DateIn <= 2024 and DateOut >= 2024 and not (Fueltype == 'Natural Gas' and Country == 'DE')

`Transmission Sensitivity`#

These scenarios assume that Germany’s ‘NEP’ transmission projects face delays, with only confirmed AC lines and DC links available that are to be built before and including 2032.

There are three available scenarios:

delayed-nep-nomds: Multi-day storages are excluded.
delayed-nep-mid-capex-mds: The cost of iron-air is set at 20,000 EUR/MWh (2024).
delayed-nep-low-capex-mds: The cost of iron-air is set at 15,250 EUR/MWh (2024).

delayed-nep-mid-capex-mds:
  sector:
    stores: ["H2"]
    storage_units: ["li-ion battery", "vanadium", "lair", "pair", "iron-air battery"]
  costs:
    investment:
      iron-air battery: 18477  # in EUR/MWh (2020) from 20,000 EUR/MWh (2024)
  scenario:
    ll:
      - v1.012  # limit to confirmed projects and 2032 from NEP projects to model a delay in the planning/permitting
  transmission_projects:
    enable: true
    include:
      tyndp2020: false
      nep: true
      manual: false
    skip:
      - upgraded_lines
      - upgraded_links
    status:
      #      - under_construction
      #      - in_permitting
      - confirmed
      #- planned_not_yet_permitted
      #- under_consideration
    new_link_capacity: zero #keep or zero
    filter_year: 2032

delayed-nep-low-capex-mds:
  sector:
    stores: ["H2"]
    storage_units: ["li-ion battery", "vanadium", "lair", "pair", "iron-air battery"]
  costs:
    investment:
      iron-air battery: 14089  # in EUR/MWh (2020) from 15,250 EUR/MWh (2024)
  scenario:
    ll:
      - v1.012  # limit to confirmed projects and 2032 from NEP projects to model a delay in the planning/permitting
  transmission_projects:
    enable: true
    include:
      tyndp2020: false
      nep: true
      manual: false
    skip:
      - upgraded_lines
      - upgraded_links
    status:
      #      - under_construction
      #      - in_permitting
      - confirmed
      #- planned_not_yet_permitted
      #- under_consideration
    new_link_capacity: zero #keep or zero
    filter_year: 2032

delayed-nep-nomds:
  sector:
    stores: []
    storage_units: ["li-ion battery", "vanadium", "lair", "pair"]
  scenario:
    ll:
      - v1.012  # limit to confirmed projects and 2032 from NEP projects to model a delay in the planning/permitting
  transmission_projects:
    enable: true
    include:
      tyndp2020: false
      nep: true
      manual: false
    skip:
      - upgraded_lines
      - upgraded_links
    status:
      #      - under_construction
      #      - in_permitting
      - confirmed
      #- planned_not_yet_permitted
      #- under_consideration
    new_link_capacity: zero #keep or zero
    filter_year: 2032

`High Gas Price`#

These scenarios assume that the EU’s gas market faces a 50% price increase compared to the baseline scenario.

There are three available scenarios:

gasprice-peak-nomds: Multi-day storages are excluded.
gasprice-peak-mid-capex-mds: The cost of iron-air is set at 20,000 EUR/MWh (2024).
gasprice-peak-low-capex-mds: The cost of iron-air is set at 15,250 EUR/MWh (2024).

gasprice-peak-mid-capex-mds:
  sector:
    stores: ["H2"]
    storage_units: ["li-ion battery", "vanadium", "lair", "pair", "iron-air battery"]
  costs:
    investment:
      iron-air battery: 18477  # in EUR/MWh (2020) from 20,000 EUR/MWh (2024)
    fuel:
      OCGT: 58.26 # https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:52022SC0230 (Annex) + 50%
      CCGT: 58.26 # https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:52022SC0230 (Annex) + 50%
      gas: 58.26 # https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:52022SC0230 (Annex) + 50%

gasprice-peak-low-capex-mds:
  sector:
    stores: ["H2"]
    storage_units: ["li-ion battery", "vanadium", "lair", "pair", "iron-air battery"]
  costs:
    investment:
      iron-air battery: 14089  # in EUR/MWh (2020) from 15,250 EUR/MWh (2024)
    fuel:
      OCGT: 58.26 # https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:52022SC0230 (Annex) + 50%
      CCGT: 58.26 # https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:52022SC0230 (Annex) + 50%
      gas: 58.26 # https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:52022SC0230 (Annex) + 50%

gasprice-peak-nomds:
  sector:
    stores: []
    storage_units: ["li-ion battery", "vanadium", "lair", "pair"]
  costs:
    fuel:
      OCGT: 58.26 # https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:52022SC0230 (Annex) + 50%
      CCGT: 58.26 # https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:52022SC0230 (Annex) + 50%
      gas: 58.26 # https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:52022SC0230 (Annex) + 50%

Scenarios Configuration

Contents

Scenarios Configuration#

Baseline#

Mid-Capex#

Low-Capex#

Climate Year 2010#

Climate Year 2012#

Climate Year 1996#

Germany Gas Power Plant Phase-Out#

Transmission Sensitivity#

High Gas Price#

`Baseline`#

`Mid-Capex`#

`Low-Capex`#

`Climate Year 2010`#

`Climate Year 2012`#

`Climate Year 1996`#

`Germany Gas Power Plant Phase-Out`#

`Transmission Sensitivity`#

`High Gas Price`#